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The Federal Reserve and the Financial Crisis
Par Ben S. Bernanke. 2013
Ben Bernanke's history of the Federal Reserve and its response to the 2008 financial crisisIn 2012, Ben Bernanke, chairman of…
the U.S. Federal Reserve, gave a series of lectures about the Federal Reserve and the 2008 financial crisis, as part of a course at George Washington University on the role of the Federal Reserve in the economy. In this unusual event, Bernanke revealed important background and insights into the central bank's crucial actions during the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression. Taken directly from these historic talks, The Federal Reserve and the Financial Crisis offers insight into the guiding principles behind the Fed's activities and the lessons to be learned from its handling of recent economic challenges.Bernanke traces the origins of the Federal Reserve, from its inception in 1914 through the Second World War, and he looks at the Fed post-1945, when it began operating independently from other governmental departments such as the Treasury. During this time the Fed grappled with episodes of high inflation, finally tamed by then-chairman Paul Volcker. Bernanke also explores the period under his predecessor, Alan Greenspan, known as the Great Moderation. Bernanke then delves into the Fed's reaction to the recent financial crisis, focusing on the central bank's role as the lender of last resort and discussing efforts that injected liquidity into the banking system. Bernanke points out that monetary policies alone cannot revive the economy, and he describes ongoing structural and regulatory problems that need to be addressed.Providing first-hand knowledge of how problems in the financial system were handled, The Federal Reserve and the Financial Crisis will long be studied by those interested in this critical moment in history.An Introduction to Mathematical Analysis for Economic Theory and Econometrics
Par Dean Corbae, Maxwell Stinchcombe, Juraj Zeman. 2009
Providing an introduction to mathematical analysis as it applies to economic theory and econometrics, this book bridges the gap that…
has separated the teaching of basic mathematics for economics and the increasingly advanced mathematics demanded in economics research today. Dean Corbae, Maxwell B. Stinchcombe, and Juraj Zeman equip students with the knowledge of real and functional analysis and measure theory they need to read and do research in economic and econometric theory. Unlike other mathematics textbooks for economics, An Introduction to Mathematical Analysis for Economic Theory and Econometrics takes a unified approach to understanding basic and advanced spaces through the application of the Metric Completion Theorem. This is the concept by which, for example, the real numbers complete the rational numbers and measure spaces complete fields of measurable sets. Another of the book's unique features is its concentration on the mathematical foundations of econometrics. To illustrate difficult concepts, the authors use simple examples drawn from economic theory and econometrics. Accessible and rigorous, the book is self-contained, providing proofs of theorems and assuming only an undergraduate background in calculus and linear algebra. Begins with mathematical analysis and economic examples accessible to advanced undergraduates in order to build intuition for more complex analysis used by graduate students and researchers Takes a unified approach to understanding basic and advanced spaces of numbers through application of the Metric Completion Theorem Focuses on examples from econometrics to explain topics in measure theoryStructural Macroeconometrics: Second Edition
Par David N. DeJong, Chetan Dave. 2012
The revised edition of the essential resource on macroeconometricsStructural Macroeconometrics provides a thorough overview and in-depth exploration of methodologies, models,…
and techniques used to analyze forces shaping national economies. In this thoroughly revised second edition, David DeJong and Chetan Dave emphasize time series econometrics and unite theoretical and empirical research, while taking into account important new advances in the field.The authors detail strategies for solving dynamic structural models and present the full range of methods for characterizing and evaluating empirical implications, including calibration exercises, method-of-moment procedures, and likelihood-based procedures, both classical and Bayesian. The authors look at recent strides that have been made to enhance numerical efficiency, consider the expanded applicability of dynamic factor models, and examine the use of alternative assumptions involving learning and rational inattention on the part of decision makers. The treatment of methodologies for obtaining nonlinear model representations has been expanded, and linear and nonlinear model representations are integrated throughout the text. The book offers a rich array of implementation algorithms, sample empirical applications, and supporting computer code.Structural Macroeconometrics is the ideal textbook for graduate students seeking an introduction to macroeconomics and econometrics, and for advanced students pursuing applied research in macroeconomics. The book's historical perspective, along with its broad presentation of alternative methodologies, makes it an indispensable resource for academics and professionals.The Darwin Economy: Liberty, Competition, and the Common Good
Par Robert H. Frank. 2013
What Charles Darwin can teach us about building a fairer societyWho was the greater economist—Adam Smith or Charles Darwin? The…
question seems absurd. Darwin, after all, was a naturalist, not an economist. But Robert Frank, New York Times economics columnist and best-selling author of The Economic Naturalist, predicts that within the next century Darwin will unseat Smith as the intellectual founder of economics. The reason, Frank argues, is that Darwin's understanding of competition describes economic reality far more accurately than Smith's. And the consequences of this fact are profound. Indeed, the failure to recognize that we live in Darwin's world rather than Smith's is putting us all at risk by preventing us from seeing that competition alone will not solve our problems.Smith's theory of the invisible hand, which says that competition channels self-interest for the common good, is probably the most widely cited argument today in favor of unbridled competition—and against regulation, taxation, and even government itself. But what if Smith's idea was almost an exception to the general rule of competition? That's what Frank argues, resting his case on Darwin's insight that individual and group interests often diverge sharply. Far from creating a perfect world, economic competition often leads to "arms races," encouraging behaviors that not only cause enormous harm to the group but also provide no lasting advantages for individuals, since any gains tend to be relative and mutually offsetting.The good news is that we have the ability to tame the Darwin economy. The best solution is not to prohibit harmful behaviors but to tax them. By doing so, we could make the economic pie larger, eliminate government debt, and provide better public services, all without requiring painful sacrifices from anyone. That's a bold claim, Frank concedes, but it follows directly from logic and evidence that most people already accept.In a new afterword, Frank further explores how the themes of inequality and competition are driving today's public debate on how much government we need.Between Slavery and Capitalism: The Legacy of Emancipation in the American South
Par Martin Ruef. 2014
An in-depth examination of the economic and social transition from slavery to capitalism during ReconstructionAt the center of the upheavals…
brought by emancipation in the American South was the economic and social transition from slavery to modern capitalism. In Between Slavery and Capitalism, Martin Ruef examines how this institutional change affected individuals, organizations, and communities in the late nineteenth century, as blacks and whites alike learned to navigate the shoals between two different economic worlds. Analyzing trajectories among average Southerners, this is perhaps the most extensive sociological treatment of the transition from slavery since W.E.B. Du Bois's Black Reconstruction in America.In the aftermath of the Civil War, uncertainty was a pervasive feature of life in the South, affecting the economic behavior and social status of former slaves, Freedmen's Bureau agents, planters, merchants, and politicians, among others. Emancipation brought fundamental questions: How should emancipated slaves be reimbursed in wage contracts? What occupations and class positions would be open to blacks and whites? What forms of agricultural tenure could persist? And what paths to economic growth would be viable? To understand the escalating uncertainty of the postbellum era, Ruef draws on a wide range of qualitative and quantitative data, including several thousand interviews with former slaves, letters, labor contracts, memoirs, survey responses, census records, and credit reports.Through a resolutely comparative approach, Between Slavery and Capitalism identifies profound changes between the economic institutions of the Old and New South and sheds new light on how the legacy of emancipation continues to affect political discourse and race and class relations today.What Price the Moral High Ground?: How to Succeed without Selling Your Soul
Par Robert H. Frank. 2003
Financial disasters--and stories of the greedy bankers who precipitated them--seem to underscore the idea that self-interest will always trump concerns…
for the greater good. Indeed, this idea is supported by the prevailing theories in both economics and evolutionary biology. But is it valid? In What Price the Moral High Ground?, economist and social critic Robert Frank challenges the notion that doing well is accomplished only at the expense of doing good. Frank explores exciting new work in economics, psychology, and biology to argue that honest individuals often succeed, even in highly competitive environments, because their commitment to principle makes them more attractive as trading partners. Drawing on research he has conducted and published over the past decade, Frank challenges the familiar homo economicus stereotype by describing how people create bonds that sustain cooperation in one-shot prisoner's dilemmas. He goes on to describe how people often choose modestly paid positions in the public and nonprofit sectors over comparable, higher-paying jobs in the for-profit sector; how studying economics appears to inhibit cooperation; how social norms often deter opportunistic behavior; how a given charitable organization manages to appeal to donors with seemingly incompatible motives; how concerns about status and fairness affect salaries in organizations; and how socially responsible firms often prosper despite the higher costs associated with their business practices. Frank's arguments have important implications for the conduct of leaders in private as well as public life. Tossing aside the model of the self-interested homo economicus, Frank provides a tool for understanding how to better structure organizations, public policies, and even our own lives.Power to the People: Energy in Europe over the Last Five Centuries (The Princeton Economic History of the Western World #46)
Par Astrid Kander, Paolo Malanima, Paul Warde. 2014
Power to the People examines the varied but interconnected relationships between energy consumption and economic development in Europe over the…
last five centuries. It describes how the traditional energy economy of medieval and early modern Europe was marked by stable or falling per capita energy consumption, and how the First Industrial Revolution in the eighteenth century--fueled by coal and steam engines--redrew the economic, social, and geopolitical map of Europe and the world. The Second Industrial Revolution continued this energy expansion and social transformation through the use of oil and electricity, but after 1970 Europe entered a new stage in which energy consumption has stabilized. This book challenges the view that the outsourcing of heavy industry overseas is the cause, arguing that a Third Industrial Revolution driven by new information and communication technologies has played a major stabilizing role. Power to the People offers new perspectives on the challenges posed today by climate change and peak oil, demonstrating that although the path of modern economic development has vastly increased our energy use, it has not been a story of ever-rising and continuous consumption. The book sheds light on the often lengthy and complex changes needed for new energy systems to emerge, the role of energy resources in economic growth, and the importance of energy efficiency in promoting growth and reducing future energy demand.The Econometrics of Financial Markets
Par John Y. Campbell, Andrew W. Lo, A. Craig MacKinlay. 1997
The past twenty years have seen an extraordinary growth in the use of quantitative methods in financial markets. Finance professionals…
now routinely use sophisticated statistical techniques in portfolio management, proprietary trading, risk management, financial consulting, and securities regulation. This graduate-level textbook is intended for PhD students, advanced MBA students, and industry professionals interested in the econometrics of financial modeling. The book covers the entire spectrum of empirical finance, including: the predictability of asset returns, tests of the Random Walk Hypothesis, the microstructure of securities markets, event analysis, the Capital Asset Pricing Model and the Arbitrage Pricing Theory, the term structure of interest rates, dynamic models of economic equilibrium, and nonlinear financial models such as ARCH, neural networks, statistical fractals, and chaos theory. Each chapter develops statistical techniques within the context of a particular financial application. This exciting new text contains a unique and accessible combination of theory and practice, bringing state-of-the-art statistical techniques to the forefront of financial applications. Each chapter also includes a discussion of recent empirical evidence, for example, the rejection of the Random Walk Hypothesis, as well as problems designed to help readers incorporate what they have read into their own applications.Economic Gangsters: Corruption, Violence, and the Poverty of Nations
Par Ray Fisman, Edward Miguel. 2010
Getting inside the heads of the developing world’s dictators, warlords, and corrupt politiciansMeet the economic gangster. He's the United Nations…
diplomat who double-parks his Mercedes on New York City streets at rush hour because the cops can't touch him—he has diplomatic immunity. He's the Chinese smuggler who dodges tariffs by magically transforming frozen chickens into frozen turkeys. The dictator, the warlord, the unscrupulous bureaucrat who bilks the developing world of billions in aid. The calculating crook who views stealing and murder as just another part of his business strategy. And, in the wrong set of circumstances, he might just be you.In Economic Gangsters, Raymond Fisman and Edward Miguel take readers into the secretive, chaotic, and brutal worlds inhabited by these lawless and violent thugs. Join these two sleuthing economists as they follow the foreign aid money trail into the grasping hands of corrupt governments and shady underworld characters. Spend time with ingenious black marketeers as they game the international system. Follow the steep rise and fall of stock prices of companies with unseemly connections to Indonesia's former dictator. See for yourself what rainfall has to do with witch killings in Tanzania—and more.Fisman and Miguel use economics to get inside the heads of these "gangsters," and propose solutions that can make a difference to the world's poor—including cash infusions to defuse violence in times of drought, and steering the World Bank away from aid programs most susceptible to corruption.In a new postscript, the authors look at how economists might use new tools to better understand, and fight back against, corruption and violence in the aftermath of the 2008 financial crisis. Take an entertaining walk on the dark side of global economic development with Economic Gangsters.An Uncertain Glory: India and its Contradictions
Par Jean Drèze, Amartya Sen. 2013
Why India's problems won't be solved by rapid economic growth aloneWhen India became independent in 1947 after two centuries of…
colonial rule, it immediately adopted a firmly democratic political system, with multiple parties, freedom of speech, and extensive political rights. The famines of the British era disappeared, and steady economic growth replaced the economic stagnation of the Raj. The growth of the Indian economy quickened further over the last three decades and became the second fastest among large economies. Despite a recent dip, it is still one of the highest in the world.Maintaining rapid as well as environmentally sustainable growth remains an important and achievable goal for India. In An Uncertain Glory, two of India's leading economists argue that the country's main problems lie in the lack of attention paid to the essential needs of the people, especially of the poor, and often of women. There have been major failures both to foster participatory growth and to make good use of the public resources generated by economic growth to enhance people's living conditions. There is also a continued inadequacy of social services such as schooling and medical care as well as of physical services such as safe water, electricity, drainage, transportation, and sanitation. In the long run, even the feasibility of high economic growth is threatened by the underdevelopment of social and physical infrastructure and the neglect of human capabilities, in contrast with the Asian approach of simultaneous pursuit of economic growth and human development, as pioneered by Japan, South Korea, and China.In a democratic system, which India has great reason to value, addressing these failures requires not only significant policy rethinking by the government, but also a clearer public understanding of the abysmal extent of social and economic deprivations in the country. The deep inequalities in Indian society tend to constrict public discussion, confining it largely to the lives and concerns of the relatively affluent. Drèze and Sen present a powerful analysis of these deprivations and inequalities as well as the possibility of change through democratic practice.The Poverty of Clio: Resurrecting Economic History
Par Francesco Boldizzoni. 2011
The Poverty of Clio challenges the hold that cliometrics--an approach to economic history that employs the analytical tools of economists--has…
exerted on the study of our economic past. In this provocative book, Francesco Boldizzoni calls for the reconstruction of economic history, one in which history and the social sciences are brought to bear on economics, and not the other way around. Boldizzoni questions the appeal of economics over history--which he identifies as a distinctly American attitude--exposing its errors and hidden ideologies, and revealing how it fails to explain economic behavior itself. He shows how the misguided reliance on economic reasoning to interpret history has come at the expense of insights from the humanities and has led to a rejection of valuable past historical research. Developing a better alternative to new institutional economics and the rational choice approach, Boldizzoni builds on the extraordinary accomplishments of twentieth-century European historians and social thinkers to offer fresh ideas for the renewal of the field. Economic history needs to rediscover the true relationship between economy and culture, and promote an authentic alliance with the social sciences, starting with sociology and anthropology. It must resume its dialogue with the humanities, but without shrinking away from theory when constructing its models. The Poverty of Clio demonstrates why history must exert its own creative power on economics.GDP: A Brief but Affectionate History - Revised and expanded Edition
Par Diane Coyle. 2016
How GDP came to rule our lives—and why it needs to changeWhy did the size of the U.S. economy increase…
by 3 percent on one day in mid-2013—or Ghana's balloon by 60 percent overnight in 2010? Why did the U.K. financial industry show its fastest expansion ever at the end of 2008—just as the world’s financial system went into meltdown? And why was Greece’s chief statistician charged with treason in 2013 for apparently doing nothing more than trying to accurately report the size of his country’s economy? The answers to all these questions lie in the way we define and measure national economies around the world: Gross Domestic Product. This entertaining and informative book tells the story of GDP, making sense of a statistic that appears constantly in the news, business, and politics, and that seems to rule our lives—but that hardly anyone actually understands.Diane Coyle traces the history of this artificial, abstract, complex, but exceedingly important statistic from its eighteenth- and nineteenth-century precursors through its invention in the 1940s and its postwar golden age, and then through the Great Crash up to today. The reader learns why this standard measure of the size of a country’s economy was invented, how it has changed over the decades, and what its strengths and weaknesses are. The book explains why even small changes in GDP can decide elections, influence major political decisions, and determine whether countries can keep borrowing or be thrown into recession. The book ends by making the case that GDP was a good measure for the twentieth century but is increasingly inappropriate for a twenty-first-century economy driven by innovation, services, and intangible goods.The German Economy: Beyond the Social Market
Par Horst Siebert. 2005
In this book, one of Germany's most influential economists describes his country's economy, the largest in the European Union and…
the third largest in the world, and analyzes its weaknesses: poor GDP growth performance, high unemployment due to a malfunctioning labor market, and an unsustainable social security system. Horst Siebert spells out the reforms necessary to overcome these shortcomings. Taking a broader view than other recent books on the German economy, he considers Germany's fiscal policy stance, product market regulation, capital market, environmental policy, aging and immigration policies, and its system for human capital formation as well as Germany's role in the European Union, including the euro zone. Germany's system of economic governance emerges as a common theme as Siebert examines why this onetime economic powerhouse is today a faltering giant. He argues that what Germany needs, above all, is a market renaissance; that it must throw off the shackles of its social welfare economy and of its hallmark consensus approach, whereby group-based cooperative decision-making has undermined competition and markets. In doing so he examines both the country's social security system and its labor market, including trade unions. His focus throughout is on Germany's present concerns, foreseeable future problems, and long-term policy issues. The definitive word on the postwar German economy to the present day, The German Economy is essential reading for economists and finance professionals as well as students, researchers, and others interested in modern-day Germany and its place and prospects at the heart of Europe.Scroogenomics: Why You Shouldn't Buy Presents for the Holidays
Par Joel Waldfogel. 2010
How consumer spending during the holidays generates enormous amounts of economic wasteChristmas is a time of seasonal cheer, family get-togethers,…
holiday parties, and . . . gift giving. Lots and lots—and lots—of gift giving. It's hard to imagine any Christmas without this time-honored custom. But let's stop to consider the gifts we receive—the rooster sweater from Grandma or the singing fish from Uncle Mike. How many of us get gifts we like? How many of us give gifts not knowing what recipients want? Did your cousin really look excited about that jumping alarm clock? Lively and informed, Scroogenomics illustrates how our consumer spending generates vast amounts of economic waste—to the shocking tune of eighty-five billion dollars each winter. Economist Joel Waldfogel provides solid explanations to show us why it's time to stop the madness and think twice before buying gifts for the holidays.When we buy for ourselves, every dollar we spend produces at least a dollar in satisfaction, because we shop carefully and purchase items that are worth more than they cost. Gift giving is different. We make less-informed choices, max out on credit to buy gifts worth less than the money spent, and leave recipients less than satisfied, creating what Waldfogel calls "deadweight loss." Waldfogel indicates that this waste isn't confined to Americans—most major economies share in this orgy of wealth destruction. While recognizing the difficulties of altering current trends, Waldfogel offers viable gift-giving alternatives.By reprioritizing our gift-giving habits, Scroogenomics proves that we can still maintain the economy without gouging our wallets, and reclaim the true spirit of the holiday season.Mathematical Techniques in Finance: Tools for Incomplete Markets - Second Edition
Par Ales Cerný. 2009
Originally published in 2003, Mathematical Techniques in Finance has become a standard textbook for master's-level finance courses containing a significant…
quantitative element while also being suitable for finance PhD students. This fully revised second edition continues to offer a carefully crafted blend of numerical applications and theoretical grounding in economics, finance, and mathematics, and provides plenty of opportunities for students to practice applied mathematics and cutting-edge finance. Ales Cerný mixes tools from calculus, linear algebra, probability theory, numerical mathematics, and programming to analyze in an accessible way some of the most intriguing problems in financial economics. The textbook is the perfect hands-on introduction to asset pricing, optimal portfolio selection, risk measurement, and investment evaluation. The new edition includes the most recent research in the area of incomplete markets and unhedgeable risks, adds a chapter on finite difference methods, and thoroughly updates all bibliographic references. Eighty figures, over seventy examples, twenty-five simple ready-to-run computer programs, and several spreadsheets enhance the learning experience. All computer codes have been rewritten using MATLAB and online supplementary materials have been completely updated. A standard textbook for graduate finance courses Introduction to asset pricing, portfolio selection, risk measurement, and investment evaluation Detailed examples and MATLAB codes integrated throughout the text Exercises and summaries of main points conclude each chapterRational Decisions (The Gorman Lectures in Economics #4)
Par Ken Binmore. 2009
It is widely held that Bayesian decision theory is the final word on how a rational person should make decisions.…
However, Leonard Savage--the inventor of Bayesian decision theory--argued that it would be ridiculous to use his theory outside the kind of small world in which it is always possible to "look before you leap." If taken seriously, this view makes Bayesian decision theory inappropriate for the large worlds of scientific discovery and macroeconomic enterprise. When is it correct to use Bayesian decision theory--and when does it need to be modified? Using a minimum of mathematics, Rational Decisions clearly explains the foundations of Bayesian decision theory and shows why Savage restricted the theory's application to small worlds. The book is a wide-ranging exploration of standard theories of choice and belief under risk and uncertainty. Ken Binmore discusses the various philosophical attitudes related to the nature of probability and offers resolutions to paradoxes believed to hinder further progress. In arguing that the Bayesian approach to knowledge is inadequate in a large world, Binmore proposes an extension to Bayesian decision theory--allowing the idea of a mixed strategy in game theory to be expanded to a larger set of what Binmore refers to as "muddled" strategies. Written by one of the world's leading game theorists, Rational Decisions is the touchstone for anyone needing a concise, accessible, and expert view on Bayesian decision making.The collapse of Britain's powerful labor movement in the last quarter century has been one of the most significant and…
astonishing stories in recent political history. How were the governments of Margaret Thatcher and her successors able to tame the unions? In analyzing how an entirely new industrial relations system was constructed after 1979, Howell offers a revisionist history of British trade unionism in the twentieth century. Most scholars regard Britain's industrial relations institutions as the product of a largely laissez faire system of labor relations, punctuated by occasional government interference. Howell, on the other hand, argues that the British state was the prime architect of three distinct systems of industrial relations established in the course of the twentieth century. The book contends that governments used a combination of administrative and judicial action, legislation, and a narrative of crisis to construct new forms of labor relations. Understanding the demise of the unions requires a reinterpretation of how these earlier systems were constructed, and the role of the British government in that process. Meticulously researched, Trade Unions and the State not only sheds new light on one of Thatcher's most significant achievements but also tells us a great deal about the role of the state in industrial relations.Running the World's Markets: The Governance of Financial Infrastructure
Par Ruben Lee. 2011
The efficiency, safety, and soundness of financial markets depend on the operation of core infrastructure--exchanges, central counter-parties, and central securities…
depositories. How these institutions are governed critically affects their performance. Yet, despite their importance, there is little certainty, still less a global consensus, about their governance. Running the World's Markets examines how markets are, and should be, run. Utilizing a wide variety of arguments and examples from throughout the world, Ruben Lee identifies and evaluates the similarities and differences between exchanges, central counter-parties, and central securities depositories. Drawing on knowledge and experience from various disciplines, including business, economics, finance, law, politics, and regulation, Lee employs a range of methodologies to tackle different goals. Conceptual analysis is used to examine theoretical issues, survey evidence to describe key aspects of how market infrastructure institutions are governed and regulated globally, and case studies to detail the particular situations and decisions at specific institutions. The combination of these approaches provides a unique and rich foundation for evaluating the complex issues raised. Lee analyzes efficient forms of governance, how regulatory powers should be allocated, and whether regulatory intervention in governance is desirable. He presents guidelines for identifying the optimal governance model for any market infrastructure institution within the context of its specific environment. Running the World's Markets provides a definitive and peerless reference for how to govern and regulate financial markets.Keys to the City: How Economics, Institutions, Social Interaction, and Politics Shape Development
Par Michael Storper. 2013
Why do some cities grow economically while others decline? Why do some show sustained economic performance while others cycle up…
and down? In Keys to the City, Michael Storper, one of the world's leading economic geographers, looks at why we should consider economic development issues within a regional context--at the level of the city-region--and why city economies develop unequally. Storper identifies four contexts that shape urban economic development: economic, institutional, innovational and interactional, and political. The book explores how these contexts operate and how they interact, leading to developmental success in some regions and failure in others. Demonstrating that the global economy is increasingly driven by its major cities, the keys to the city are the keys to global development. In his conclusion, Storper specifies eight rules of economic development targeted at policymakers. Keys to the City explains why economists, sociologists, and political scientists should take geography seriously.Asset Price Dynamics, Volatility, and Prediction
Par Stephen J. Taylor. 2005
This book shows how current and recent market prices convey information about the probability distributions that govern future prices. Moving…
beyond purely theoretical models, Stephen Taylor applies methods supported by empirical research of equity and foreign exchange markets to show how daily and more frequent asset prices, and the prices of option contracts, can be used to construct and assess predictions about future prices, their volatility, and their probability distributions. Stephen Taylor provides a comprehensive introduction to the dynamic behavior of asset prices, relying on finance theory and statistical evidence. He uses stochastic processes to define mathematical models for price dynamics, but with less mathematics than in alternative texts. The key topics covered include random walk tests, trading rules, ARCH models, stochastic volatility models, high-frequency datasets, and the information that option prices imply about volatility and distributions. Asset Price Dynamics, Volatility, and Prediction is ideal for students of economics, finance, and mathematics who are studying financial econometrics, and will enable researchers to identify and apply appropriate models and methods. It will likewise be a valuable resource for quantitative analysts, fund managers, risk managers, and investors who seek realistic expectations about future asset prices and the risks to which they are exposed.